Exploiting large ensembles for a better yet simpler climate model evaluation

نویسندگان

چکیده

Abstract We use a methodological framework exploiting the power of large ensembles to evaluate how well ten coupled climate models represent internal variability and response external forcings in observed historical surface temperatures. This evaluation allows us directly attribute discrepancies between observations biases simulated or forced response, without relying on assumptions separate these signals observations. The largest result from overestimated warming some during recent decades. In contrast, do not systematically over- underestimate global mean temperature. On regional scales, all misrepresent temperature over Southern Ocean, while overestimating land-surface areas, such as Amazon South Asia, high-latitude oceans. Our shows that MPI-GE, followed by GFDL-ESM2M CESM-LE offer best representation both

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ژورنال

عنوان ژورنال: Climate Dynamics

سال: 2021

ISSN: ['0930-7575', '1432-0894']

DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05821-w